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South-West monsoon gets positive IOD boost even as El Nino threat looms

  • Writer: Ajjay Bhagyakar
    Ajjay Bhagyakar
  • Jun 11
  • 3 min read

South-West monsoon gets positive IOD boost even as El Nino threat looms
Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

India's southwest monsoon may receive a crucial boost from the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), even as climate experts continue to monitor the growing threat of El Niño. While El Niño is generally associated with weaker rainfall and drier conditions across India, scientists believe that a developing Positive IOD could help offset some of its adverse effects during the latter half of the monsoon season.


The evolving weather pattern is particularly significant for India's agriculture, water resources, infrastructure projects, and real estate sector, all of which rely heavily on a healthy monsoon.

What Is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

During a Positive IOD:

  • The western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than usual.

  • Waters near Indonesia become comparatively cooler.

  • Atmospheric circulation changes in a way that can enhance rainfall over parts of India.

Historically, Positive IOD events have helped strengthen India's monsoon and, in some years, have reduced the impact of El Niño on seasonal rainfall.

Why Is El Niño a Concern?

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.

Its impact on India often includes:

  • Below-normal monsoon rainfall

  • Higher temperatures

  • Increased risk of drought

  • Pressure on agriculture and water availability

Climate models indicate that El Niño conditions are developing during the current monsoon season, prompting meteorologists to closely monitor rainfall trends across the country.

Can Positive IOD Offset El Niño?

According to climate scientists, a Positive IOD has the potential to partially counterbalance El Niño's drying influence.

However, experts caution that:

  • The IOD is currently neutral and is expected to turn positive later in the monsoon.

  • Any positive impact is more likely during August and September rather than the early part of the rainy season.

  • Weather patterns remain dynamic, and forecasts may evolve over the coming weeks.

Why Is This Important?

The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall, making it one of the country's most important economic drivers.

A stable monsoon supports:

  • Agricultural production

  • Food security

  • Water reservoirs

  • Hydropower generation

  • Infrastructure development

  • Construction activity

  • Overall economic growth

Even a moderate improvement in rainfall during the second half of the season could reduce pressure on several sectors of the economy.

What Does It Mean for Real Estate?

Weather conditions have a direct influence on India's real estate and infrastructure industries.

A healthy monsoon can:

  • Support ongoing construction activity

  • Improve rural incomes and housing demand

  • Strengthen infrastructure development

  • Ensure better water availability for expanding cities

  • Boost investor confidence in long-term development projects

For regions like Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), favourable monsoon conditions also help sustain infrastructure execution while supporting the broader property market.

Looking Ahead

Scientists will continue monitoring both the Positive IOD and El Niño throughout the monsoon season, South-West monsoon gets positive IOD boost even as El Nino threat looms.


While El Niño remains a key risk, the possibility of a Positive IOD developing later in the season provides cautious optimism that rainfall conditions could improve during the final months of the southwest monsoon.

Conclusion South-West monsoon gets positive IOD boost even as El Nino threat looms

The interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole highlights the complexity of India's climate system. Although uncertainties remain, the potential development of a Positive IOD offers hope that the monsoon may perform better than initially feared.


For agriculture, infrastructure, and real estate, the coming months will be critical in determining how these global weather patterns shape India's economic outlook.

Published by: Griha Realty

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